The market dynamics of tightened capacity outpacing demand has helped carriers maintain pricing discipline as rates rise even though volume hasn’t. This is enough to raise a chorus of hosannahs from carrier executives weary from a four-year recession.
Rising per-mile carrier costs, coupled with dampened demand, has contributed to reduced truck counts. These market conditions have also helped to boost truckload spot rates ahead of contract rates. Here’s more on industry news this month.
Carrier Execs Say Freight Recession Has Ended
Four different carrier executives have joined a chorus calling an end to the four-year freight recession — but not due to volume as in a typical recovery, but to pricing power as reduced capacity has helped push up rates.
Carrier capacity has tightened since a high-water mark in March 2022, as freight market weakness drove bankruptcies, voluntary fleet closures, idled trucks, fewer new entrants, operating authority revocations, and industry consolidation. But it’s beginning to turn. In Q1, there was a net gain of carriers per NMCSA data, with registrations and reinstatements (7,007) outpacing exits (6,239) for the first time since Q2 2025, and Q3 2022 before that.
Dry van spot rates from FTR Transportation Intelligence and Truckstop.com for the first week of June were up 52% year over year to $3.06 per mile. This was the highest rate since the final week in December 2021, at the height of the COVID-era boom, when they reached $3.09 per mile. As of the week of July 20, rates had dipped a bit due to seasonality, at $2.88 per mile.
Executives from LTL carriers Estes Express and Old Dominion Freight Lines, plus dedicated transportation providers NFI Industries and J.B. Hunt, were all pointing with optimism to the uptick in rates after an extended rough patch for the industry. “It feels like a breath of air for an industry that maybe felt like they were running out of air,” Webb Estes, president and CEO of Estes, told The Wall Street Journal.
Similar to the FTR reading, May transportation prices in the Logistics Managers’ Index, based on a survey of supply chain leaders, rose at the fastest pace since its inception 10 years ago, before slipping back a bit in June.
Reflective of the dynamic of tightened capacity helping to boost rates and revenues despite lower demand, the Cass Freight Index for June showed shipments down 4.1% while expenditures or freight spend rose 11.2%.
“To some extent, volumes are still down because capacity is declining, and the glimmers of strong demand visible with double-digit growth in the relatively small domestic intermodal sector are not moving the needle in this more trucking-based index,” Cass reported. “Higher fuel prices were also a drag on goods demand.”
Cost Increases Lead Truckers to Reduce Capacity
The average cost of operating a truck in 2025 was $2.336 per mile, up 3.4% from 2024, according to the American Transportation Research Institute, the highest the organization reported in its 19-year history. Excluding fuel, costs rose by 4.2% to $1.854 per mile.
Fuel and driver pay were the only cost categories that didn’t rise faster than inflation last year, ATRI reported, with repair and maintenance (+8.6%) and driver wages and benefits (+6.6%) outpacing it.
Trucking costs were highest in the Northeast, at $2.02 per mile excluding fuel, followed by the West Coast ($1.84), the Southeast ($1.79), South Central ($1.77), and Midwest ($1.76).
With costs rising, demand down and rates suppressed, carrier capacity was reduced by 2.4% in 2025, the largest cut since the start of the freight recession in 2022. Another 10% of trucks were unseated on average, meaning they lacked an assigned driver.
“Freight rates are finally turning a corner in 2026, but the acceleration of industry-wide costs means that fleets must continue with aggressive cost discipline,” PGT Trucking Inc. COO Chad Marsilio said in a statement.
For-Hire Tonnage Inches Up in June: ATA
The American Trucking Associations’ For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index, seasonally adjusted, rose 0.1% in June, after a decrease of 3.2% in May. For the first half of the year, ATA reported tonnage was up 1.4% versus 2024, driven by strength in Q1. This was an improvement from last year, when the index was flat year over year. The ATA index is based mostly on contract freight vs. the spot market.
“After five straight year-over-year gains, tonnage has now contracted from year-earlier levels for the last two months,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello in a statement. “While the U.S. economy remains on solid footing overall, the freight economy isn’t as strong. With that said, the decrease in capacity over the last year probably has fleets feeling a little better than volumes would suggest.”
Spot Rates Outpace Contract for First Time in 4+ Years: DAT
DAT Freight & Analytics reported that in June for the first time since February 2022, the national average van truckload spot rate outpaced the contract rate, with overall rate growth far exceeding volume growth, due to capacity tightening coupled with dampened demand.
The dry van Truckload Volume Index (TVI) for June from DAT was up 11% from May but flat compared to 2025. The reefer TVA rose 5% from May but was down 8% from last June, while flatbed TVI was up 12% sequentially but down 4% year over year.
“The difference between spot and contract rates has narrowed steadily for more than a year, and carriers are gaining pricing power across the board,” said DAT industry analyst Dean Croke. “Van spot beating contract for the first time in four years, and flatbed hitting an all-time high in the same month, shows real capacity pressure. If demand were driving this, volumes would be climbing too, and they’re not.”
ArcBest Closing LTL Hubs in 9 States in Restructuring
As part of a restructuring plan, LTL, freight brokerage, and managed transportation provider ArcBest is closing facilities in nine states, representing a 1% reduction in total doors in its network.
The hubs are located in Plainfield, Connecticut; Bowling Green, Kentucky; Effingham, Illinois; Sullivan, Missouri; Sioux City, Iowa; Watertown, South Dakota; Port Allen, Louisiana; Hattiesburg and Tupelo, Mississippi; and Blountville, Tennessee, according to the company via Trucking Dive.
The restructuring plan also calls for a 2% reduction of ArcBest’s workforce, the company said in an SEC filing.
Overall Trucking Rates Are Ticking Upward
All things considered, the trucking industry has reason to be optimistic. After a thinning of capacity due to carrier departures, especially the massive void left by the Yellow Freight bankruptcy in 2023, overall rates are ticking upward.
While great news for operators, it means more pressure on shippers that rely on trucking to get their freight moved. This is where the importance of an experienced, solid logistics partner can be vital to mitigating costs, helping you secure capacity in key lanes at competitive rates.
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