The U.S. trucking and freight landscape is no longer moving in lockstep. Despite the absence of a mass exodus of carriers and modest employment stability in late 2025, cracks are widening across the industry. Bankruptcy filings, debt restructurings, and anemic rate recoveries hint at an ecosystem struggling with chronic imbalance.
From intermodal giants buckling under debt to policymakers dialing back tariffs to ease inflation, the signals are loud and clear: The freight economy may be stable on paper, but its foundation is still shifting. In this issue of our monthly look at the industry, we break down some of the key developments shaping the freight market.
Why the Trucking Market Isn’t Shrinking Despite a Freight Recession
Despite a prolonged freight recession, the U.S. for-hire carrier market remained steady in 2025. Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) data showed revocations of operating authority were nearly offset by grants and reinstatements, leaving the market with 86,000 more carriers than before the pandemic.
Spot rates have stagnated since mid-2023, and analysts disagree on whether tightening supply or stronger demand will break the slump. And despite the headlines, English language proficiency (ELP) enforcement had minimal effect on revocations. FTR estimated about 6,400 December exits, while Trucking Dive reported nearly 8,600. The discrepancies are due to data filters.
Truckload Recovery on Ice: Oversupply and Weak Demand Mute Rate Growth
According to the Journal of Commerce, truckload rates will likely stay depressed well into 2026 due to persistent overcapacity and weak demand. Large carriers cut fleets sharply, but small carriers have proven surprisingly resilient. FMCSA data showed just 1,500 revocations in the first nine months of 2025, down from 13,000 in 2024.
More than 90,000 new carriers have entered the market since 2019, further complicating rate recovery. Analysts say that without a meaningful surge in manufacturing or consumer demand, rate increases will remain modest. Spot prices are unlikely to recover until 2027 unless there’s a dramatic shift in freight volumes or more decisive regulatory pressure on capacity.
Trucking Jobs Hit Post-Pandemic Lows Despite December Rate Surge
Truck transportation employment held flat at 1,513,300 jobs in November and December 2025, the lowest since July 2021. Since December 2023, the sector has lost 21,300 jobs. But warehouse jobs have been hit harder, dropping by 38,200 in six months and now down 151,600 from the March 2022 peak.
Despite the employment downturn, average trucking wages hit a record $31.75 per hour in November, $1.65 higher than a year earlier, signaling possible retention strategies amid instability. Uber Freight economist Mazen Danaf pointed to continued declines in the long-distance truckload sector, calling it the driver behind slow market tightening.
Trump Delays Furniture Tariffs, Slashes Pasta Duties Amid Inflation Pressures
In a move to contain consumer prices, the Trump administration delayed steep tariff hikes on imported furniture and cabinetry until 2027, following a rise in furniture imports to $25.5 billion in 2024. The increase, which was slated to go from 25% to 50%, would have targeted imports from major suppliers such as China and Vietnam.
At the same time, proposed anti-dumping duties on Italian pasta were drastically cut after negotiations. Initial rate proposals were more than 90%, but the rates dropped to 2.26% for La Molisana and 13.98% for Garofalo. With pasta exports to the U.S. worth $800 million annually, the reversal removes a flashpoint in U.S.-EU trade relations.
STG Logistics Files for Bankruptcy, Secures $150M Lifeline Amid Freight Downturn
STG Logistics, a major intermodal and drayage provider, filed for Chapter 11 on January 12 while securing $150 million in debtor-in-possession financing to maintain operations. The company, burdened by debt from its $710 million acquisition of XPO’s North American intermodal unit in 2022, plans to exit bankruptcy within five months.
The restructuring, backed by Wind Point, Oaktree, and Duration Capital, will wipe out 91% of STG’s debt. CEO Geoff Anderman framed the move as a survival step amid one of the worst freight recessions in history.
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